Italy’s population is projected to decline by almost four million people by 2050, raising serious concerns about the future sustainability of the country’s economy, pension system and broader welfare structure.
New demographic projections from Italy’s national statistics institute, ISTAT, show that the country’s population could fall from 58.9 million at the beginning of 2025 to around 55 million by 2050.
The decline is expected to continue in the following decades, with Italy’s population potentially dropping to just 45.8 million by 2080.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni made increasing the country’s birth rate one of her government’s priorities after taking office in 2022. However, Italy has continued to record historically low numbers of births.
Births have been declining steadily since 2008, falling to approximately 355,000 last year, the lowest annual figure recorded since Italy’s unification in 1861.
ISTAT expects annual births to remain relatively stable until 2030 before declining further to around 335,000 by 2050.
At the same time, the number of deaths is expected to increase significantly as Italy’s population grows older. Annual deaths, which stood at around 652,000 last year, are projected to peak at approximately 869,000 in 2058, when much of the country’s post-war baby boom generation reaches advanced age.
The demographic shift is also expected to dramatically change the balance between workers and retirees.
People aged 65 and older are projected to account for 34.5% of Italy’s population by 2050, compared with 24.7% in 2025.
Meanwhile, the share of working-age residents between 15 and 64 years old is expected to fall from 63.4% to 55.3% over the same period.
According to ISTAT, the combination of a shrinking workforce and a rapidly growing elderly population will create significant new challenges for Italy’s economy and welfare system.
The population decline is not expected to affect all regions equally.
Southern Italy is projected to suffer the sharpest losses, with its population falling from 19.7 million in 2025 to 16.7 million by 2050. Central and northern regions are also expected to lose residents, although at a slower rate.
